Table of Content

25 December 2020, Volume 29 Issue 12

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Theory Analysis and M ethodology Study

Vector Auto-regression Control Chart for Monitoring Multivariate Autocorrelation Process with Variable Sampling Intervals

XUE Li

2020, 29(12):  1-7.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0306

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The vector auto-regression (VAR) control chart can effectively monitor the small shift of multivariate autocorrelation process based on the idea of the batch-mean mind. To improve the monitoring efficiency for multivariate autocorrelation process, VAR control chart with variable sampling intervals (VSI) is studied. Firstly, VAR control chart with variable sampling intervals for monitoring multivariate autocorrelation process is designed; Secondly, the average time to signal of this control chart is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation method; Finally, taking the average time to signal as the evaluation criterion, VAR control chart with variable sampling intervals and fixed sampling intervals are compared. The computing results show that the VSI VAR control chart is the more efficient indetecting shifts than the fixed sampling interval (FSI) VAR control chart.

Indicators Screening Method Based on k-means Clustering and Rough Set Algorithm

ZHANG Li-jun, GAO Chun-xiao

2020, 29(12):  8-12.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0307

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Aiming at the information duplication and uncertainty of indicators in multi-attribute decision, an indicators screening method is proposed based on improved k-means clustering and rough set algorithm. Firstly, we define the spatial distribution density of the sample, and implement the k-means algorithm of the initial cluster center optimization, so the continuous indicators are discretized. Then we use the relative reduction principle to reduce the indicators, and delete the redundant indicator with repeated information. Combined with the case of green economic indicator system, the rationality and effectiveness of the method are verified.

Optimization of Multiple Crane Yards Scheduling in Pre-rehandling Export Block

ZHENG hong-xing, WANG Jie, YAO Lin

2020, 29(12):  13-22.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0308

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In the practical operation of the container export block, the containers waiting for picking up are often rehandled over to an empty block in advance, and stacked in reverse order of the ship’s loading map before loading to improve the loading efficiency. In order to improve the efficiency of pre-rehandling operation in the initial export block, the multiple crane yards scheduling optimization problem in the block has been studied. Taking a certain export block for implementing the pre-rehandling operation as the research target, considering the conditions for maintaining a safe distance between the crane yards and not being able to cross, complying with realistic constraint of meeting the rules experience container rehandling , focusing on real-time container rehandling during the operation process, a linear programming model with the minimum travel time of the crane yard operation as the target has been constructed, and the branch pricing algorithm is designed. In the example experiment, the effectiveness of the model and algorithm is verified by comparison with the non-real-time pre-rehandling scheme, FCFS scheme and lower bound, which could provide reference for the crane yard scheduling of the container terminal export block yard.

Robust Optimization Model of Emergency Relief Supply Chain under Uncertain Environment

LIU Xing

2020, 29(12):  23-29.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0309

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Due to the urgency and importance of disaster relief operation, considering the uncertainty of demand, supply, and cost parameters, a three-level emergency relief supply chain which consists of suppliers, relief distribution centers and affected areas, is presented to determine the quantity of relief commodity and the appropriate locations of relief distribution centers. While the model tries to minimize the total cost of relief supply chain and maximize the affected area satisfaction level, an interval data robust approach is applied to tackle the uncertainty of the model and the scenario stochastic programming is applied to decrease the calculation difficulty of robust optimization. Finally, an earthquake case is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed robust optimization model for the relief supply chain. The experimental results show that the change of demand conservatism degree has a greater impact on the value of the objective function than the change of supply and cost conservatism, which can provide theoretical support for emergency relief decision makers to adjust the conservatism degree of uncertain parameters.

Attribute Reduction of Multi Objective Rough Set Based on Chaotic Swarm Intelligent Optimization Algorithm

LI Xue-yan, LI Xue-wei, LI Jing

2020, 29(12):  30-37.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0310

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Fortheproblemofattribute reduction ofroughsetwithmultidecisionattributesinthemanagementand big data processing, objective functions for differentdecisionattributesareestablishedbasedonthe dependability and knowledge resolution of condition attributes. Byintroducingtheideaof Pareto optimal solution, theattribute reduction problemofroughsetwithmultidecisionattributes is converted into multi-objective optimization problem with discrete variables. Basedontheideaof swarm intelligence, the new cellular automata solutionalgorithmisdesigned, and in the algorithm, the set of individual non-dominated solutions isdesignedtobalancethe local optimum andtheglobal optimum.Moreover, chaoticoperatorisintroducedtoincreasethe population diversity. Inthe numerical example, the decision tablesareestablished, optimizedandanalyzedbasedonthesecurity risk handling dataofarailway company. The studyfindsthat (1)comparedwiththetraditionalNSGA-II andMO-cellalgorithms, the new algorithmshowsbetterperformancein multi-objective attribute mining; (2)theideaof Pareto optimal solution can well explaintheapplicationofroughsetwithmultidecisionattributesinmanagement.

Plates Order Distribution in Colony Base on Improved Immune Optimization Algorithm

SUN Wei-hong, LV Wen-xin

2020, 29(12):  38-42.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0311

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In the area of regional enterprise cluster, the reasons for the great variety kinds of plate, dispersion of distributed and lack of cooperation among enterprises, always lead to various problems, such as the retention of the internal resources, the lack of sharing, the shortage of raw materials in the processing season. IA-PSO immune optimization algorithm is proposed to reduce the cost and delivery time of user’s order and an improved multi-objective immune optimization algorithm is proposed to find a better and more feasible allocation model. By comparing the fitness function solution with the budget cost of the order, the antibody group is divided into the dominant and non-dominant solutions. The affinity evaluation function of the antibody antigen is used to improve the selection probability of the optimal solution, and the order distribution enterprise number is used as the antibody gene of the immune system, so as to select the optimal solution that converges to the global. Finally, it is proved that the IA-PSO algorithm can effectively solve the multi-objective resource scheduling problem in panel clusters.

A Maximum Covering Location Model for Emergency Facility Considering Shared Uncertainties

YU Dong-mei, GAO Lei-fu, ZHAO Shi-jie

2020, 29(12):  43-50.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0312

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In order to improve the service quality of emergency facilities and the ability to withstand interruption risks, the maximum coverage location-allocation decision-making problem for emergency facilities is studied. The maximum covering location model for emergency facility considering shared uncertainties is developed by extending uncapacitated fix-charge location problem. The shared uncertainties are characterized by introducing budget uncertainties into both objectives and constraints. A mixed integer programming model is proposed based on Bertsimas and Sim robust method, and the nonlinear problem is transformed into a robust equivalent model which is easy to solve. The improved grey wolf optimization algorithm with chaotic search strategy is presented to solve the model,and the sensitivity analysis of robustness level and disruption probability are carried out. Finally, through the comparative analysis of case and data simulation results, we verify the rationality and effectiveness of the model and give the optimal location-allocation scheme.

Research on Design Life Decision of Durable Goods Based on EPR ——From the Perspective of Planned Obsolescence

WANG Lei-ning, ZHENG Yun-hong, ZHAO Rui

2020, 29(12):  51-58.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0313

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This paper discusses how to prevent durable goods from producing a large amount of waste in the short term like fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) through extended producer responsibility (EPR). On the basis of existing research, from the perspective of planned obsolescence, this article builds a dynamic model of durable goods, based on continuous time using the optimal control method to explore the optimal result of centralized decision making and decentralized decision-making of market equilibrium. Meanwhile, this paper reveals the incentive effect of EPR constraints under different market structures for producers to extend the life of the product design. Finally, based on the analysis process of the theoretical model, the conclusions of the research are verified by numerical simulation and case study. The results show that under the perfect competition market structure, the implementation of a single Pigouvian tax or only deposit return system can realize the optimal output and also provide enough incentive for producers to extend the service life of the product design; In an imperfect competitive market structure, at least two EPR constraints, tax and subsidy, are needed to achieve the optimal outcome of output and design life.

Picture Fuzzy Power Geometric Heronian Mean Operators and Their Application to Multi-Criteria Decision Making

WANG Lei, TAO Liu-qin

2020, 29(12):  59-66.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0314

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In order to solve the multi-attribute decision making problem in which the attribute values are in the form of picture fuzzy number, in this paper, we combine the geometric Heronian mean operator and the power geometric operator in the classical category, and propose the picture fuzzy power geometric Heronian mean(PFPGHM) operator and picture fuzzy weighted power geometric Heronian mean operator (PFWPGHM). The proposed operator can not only reflect the correlation between the aggregated data, but also reflect the integrity of the decision process, and reduce the impact of the aggregated data with the overall information deviation on the decision result. The mathematical expressions are derived and the related properties are proposed. A multi-attribute decision making method based on PFWPGHM operator is proposed, and the influence of parameters p and q on decision making results is analyzed by practical example. Meanwhile, the feasibility and advantages of the proposed method is illustrated by comparison analysis.

The Stability of Industry-University-Research Innovation Alliance Based on Evolutionary Game

ZHANG Gen-ming, ZHANG Man-ning

2020, 29(12):  67-73.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0315

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The stability of the industry-university-research innovation alliance has a positive effect on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.Based on reasonable assumptions, this paper constructs an evolutionary game modelof industry-university-research innovation alliance and analyzes the stability of the process of alliance, and uses Matlab for numerical simulation. The results show that the evolutionary result is influenced by the initial state of the system, and is closely related to the level of company’s learning ability, the amount of reputation loss and long-term benefits, the fairness of profit distribution, and the amount of penalty. Finally, some recommendations are given such as constructing a reasonable distribution proportion of excess profit, establishing an effective punishment mechanism, strengthening intellectual property protection and incorporatingenterprise behavior into social credit system.

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Employee-organization Relationship in Sharing Economy-Based on Platform User’s Supervision

ZHANG Jie, WANG Miao-miao, ZHANG Lu, BI Yan-zhao

2020, 29(12):  74-81.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0316

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In order to study the evolutionary mechanism of employee-organization relationship under the sharing economy context, which has changed traditional employment relations extraordinarily, this paper introduces the perspective of supervision of platform users, establishes an evolutionary game model of employee relationship governance based on the evolutionary game theory, and then makes its simulation and analyses it. It shows that the choice of employee compliance behavior and platform enterprise control strategy depends on the extent of supervisory of users on the platform. Specifically, user’s supervision can urge platform enterprise to reinforce supervision and improve employee’s behaviors. Thus, platform enterprise should take full advantage of the supervisory effect of platform users during system design to achieve mutual trust and harmonious employee-organization relationship.

Research on Evolutionary Game of Knowledge Sharing in Virtual Community Considering Platform Influencing Factors

YAO Hui Li, MAO Xiang Yu, JIN Hui

2020, 29(12):  82-88.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0317

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knowledge sharing is an important way for virtual community users to learn from each other and spread knowledge. Considering the incentive function of virtual community to participate in user’s knowledge sharing behavior, this paper introduces reward and opportunity costas well as knowledge sharing income factor,and constructs the evolutionary game payment matrix of virtual community knowledge sharing, which takes into account the influencing factors of platform. The evolutionary equilibrium solutionis obtained. Throughthe introduction of Xiaomi community case, the influence of simulation platform on user knowledge sharing incentive, opportunity cost, profit allocation coefficient and participation user sharing degree on user knowledge sharing behavior will be affected by simulation platform. The research finds that virtual communities participate in users. The willingness to share is more sensitive to the change of profit coefficient of new knowledge, and the opportunity cost caused by platform reward and non-sharing knowledge has a great influence on the user’s willingness to share knowledge. At the same time, different participating users have different goals for knowledge sharing because of their different level of knowledge, which will affect their choice of knowledge sharing strategy.

Differential Game Analysis of Dynamic Carbon Emission Reduction Strategy of Three-Echelon Supply Chain under Low-carbon Economy

JIANG Yue, HAN Shui-hua, ZHAO Yang

2020, 29(12):  89-97.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0318

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Against the background of low-carbon economy, considering the continuity of carbon emission reduction, time factor is introduced to the model. This paper applies differential game method to carbon emission reduction decision in a three-echelon supply chain, and constructs a dynamic carbon emission reduction decision model of a three-echelon supply chain consisting of a supplier, a manufacturer and a retailer. It compares the products’ carbon emission reduction and the profit of supply chain under coordination and non coordination. The optimal trajectory of products’ carbon emission reduction can be found, and the optimal feedback equilibrium strategy of the supplier, the manufacturer and the retailer can be also obtained. Finally, this paper analyzes the impact of related parameters on optimal trajectory of products’ carbon emission reduction through a numerical example, and the theoretical basis is provided for long-term emissions reduction strategy of the supply chain.

The Impact of Information Sharing on the Performance of Dual-channel Green Supply Chain

WANG Tong-yuan, LI Yan-lai

2020, 29(12):  98-106.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0319

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This paper aims at studyingthe effect of retailer’s demand information sharingonthe performance of dual-channel green supply chain. The green supply chain decision-making models with or without information sharing are established and solved by using incomplete information dynamic game method, and then the Bayesian equilibrium solutions and the optimal expected profits are obtained. The results show that in the dual-channel green supply chain,information sharing can motivate the manufacturer to improve product's green degree when the retailer is optimistic about the potential demand. Moreover, information sharing is always beneficial to the manufacturer. However, whether the retailer has an incentive to share demand information is uncertain. When the manufacturer’s green investment efficiency is higher, the retailer can obtain more profits from information sharing, otherwise the retailer would suffer a profit loss. Furthermore, the impact on the performance of the whole green supply chain depends on the competition intensity, the market share of direct channel and the green investment efficiency. Finally, the validity of the model and conclusions are verified by numerical simulation.

Dual-channel Supply Chain Pricing Decision and Emission Reduction Policies Based on Consumer Preference to Low Carbon

LIANG Xi, ZHANG Yu-ting

2020, 29(12):  107-117.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0320

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Based on the consumer channel preferences and low carbon preferences, this paper uses the Stackelberg game model based on the manufacturer to compare and study the impact of each member of the single traditional retail channel, the e-tail dual-channel and the distribution dual-channel on the emission reduction, and emission reduction strategy and two dual-channel revenue sharing coordination strategies. The study finds that when manufacturers introduce online direct sales and distribution channels, they can effectively increase the manufacturer’s optimal unit emission reductions; after opening new channels, traditional retailers’ profits will always decrease, while consumer preferences are within a certain range, the profit of the manufacturer will increase. In this paper, the profit sharing mechanism is designed to coordinate the profit problems of manufacturers and traditional retailers, so that the profit of supply chain members can be improved by Pareto.

Fluid Approximation of Call Center with Delay Information Strategy

YU Miao, GONG Jun, KONG Fan-wen

2020, 29(12):  118-124.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0321

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One of the important management approaches of call centers is to provide delay information for customers to alleviate system congestion. In order to characterize the influence of customer behavior on the performance of the call center with delay information strategy effectively, the deterministic fluid approximation is used to establish the queueing model of call center. First, a queuing behavior framework with delay information is proposed based on queueing analysis, including the expression of multiple behavioral behavior by probability functions under the customer’s mental and behavior variation. Then, the deterministic fluid approximation is developed to formulate the continuous queueing model with retrials, and the performance calculation formula of queueing system is deduced under the stable station. Compared with the simulation model, the effectiveness and the accuracy of the fluid method are demonstrated. The research results indicate that the method proposed is of importance to call center operations with delay information.

Application Research

Impacts of Users’ Perceived Service Quality on Their Knowledge Search and Knowledge Contribution in Crowdsourcing Communities

RUI Zheng-yun, MA Xi-fang

2020, 29(12):  125-132.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0322

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Crowdsourcing communities are important platforms for open innovation. This study evaluates user’s perceived service quality of crowdsourcing communities from three aspects: environmental quality, interaction quality and outcome quality. Then we introduce the flow experience and social presence as intermediary variables, to explore the mechanisms through which a user’s perceived service quality influences their knowledge search and knowledge contribution. The empirical research based on 216 questionnaires shows that, first, the environmental quality, interaction quality and outcome quality are the key dimensions of users’ service quality perception in crowdsourcing communities. Second, users’ flow experience mainly plays a mediating role between perceived service quality and knowledge search, while social presence mainly plays a mediating role between perceived service quality and knowledge contribution. Last, community involvement plays a partially mediating role between users’ flow experience and knowledge contribution, meanwhile, it also plays a completely mediating role between users’ social presence and knowledge contribution.

Spatial Disparities and Type Recognition of Coastal Ports in China Attracting Cargos of the “Ice Silk Road”

PENG Yan, LI Zhen-fu

2020, 29(12):  133-139.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0323

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This paper constructs a model of port cargo attraction potential, and predicts and analyses the spatial differentiation pattern of China’s coastal port system against China-Northwest Europe maritime trade and identifies the type of freight space under the background of full navigation of the Ice Silk Road. The results show that: In terms of spatial pattern, the distribution of attraction potential shows a decreasing trend from north to south.LNG, coal, iron ore, timber and total potential have significant positive spatial correlation. Oil and containers are randomly distributed in space. The region around Bohai Rim Region and Yangtze River Delta has some characteristics of port hierarchy. The low-value agglomeration characteristics are obvious in the Southeast coast, Pearl River Delta and Southwest coastal areas.In terms of freight space types, the focus of port architecture is in the northern port area, and the comprehensive cargo flow aggregation capacity of large ports around the Bohai Sea is stronger than that of other areas. Coastal ports basically accord with the trend that the larger the scale of freight transport, the higher the comprehensive freight grade.

Potential Assessment of Optimizing Energy Structure to Carbon Intensity Target in Hebei Province

WANG Xin-li, HUANG Yuan-sheng, LIU Shi-jian

2020, 29(12):  140-146.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0324

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This paper mainly studies the potential contribution of optimizing primary energy consumption structure to carbon intensity in Hebei province. First of all, the scenario prediction model is used to forecast the future GDP and total energy consumption in Hebei province; then the Markov chain model is built to predict the future energy consumption structure in Hebei province and optimization thought is applied to optimize the calculated average transfer probability matrix; finally 27 composite scenarios are used to evaluate the potential contribution of energy consumption structure optimization to the carbon intensity target of Hebei province in 2020. The results show that the structural adjustment of energy consumption in varying composite scenarios can promote the carbon intensity decrease to various degrees, contributing to the realization of carbon intensity targets at different levels. However, even under the most ideal conditions the contribution potential rate is only 16.7%~17.8%. Therefore, the potential contribution of energy consumption structure optimization to carbon intensity targets in Hebei province is limited, which means that the goal of carbon intensity in Hebei province cannot be fully achieved only by optimizing the energy structure. We must rely on the combined efforts of the government, enterprises, and all sectors of society to take a series of measures in order to fully achieve the goal set in the “13th Five-Year Plan”of the province.

Study on Technology Lock-in Effect in Coal Resource-based Areas

LI Gang, MA Yu-jie, NIU Chong-huai

2020, 29(12):  147-153.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0325

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In this paper the location entropy index of coal industry is used to divide coal resource-based areas. Using DEA-SBM model, this paper selects input-output data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2016 and divides them into coal resource-based areas and non-coal resource-based areas, and by measuring their efficiency of technological innovation, the technological lock-in effect of coal resource-based areas is studied .Based on the panel data from 2008 to 2016 in coal resource-based areas a regression model is constructed to study the main influencing factors of technology lock-in. The results show that the location entropy index of coal industry in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia is higher than the critical value, so they are coal resource-based areas.Compared with non-coal resource-based areas, their technological innovation efficiency is low and the technology lock-in effect is obvious.The cost of conversion caused by the stickiness of resource industry to capital has exacerbated the technology lock-in effect, and the irrational economic structure with deeper nationalization deepened the technology lock-in effect.At the same time, the government’s financial support and the expansion of market demand can effectively reduce the technology lock-in effect,and on the basis of this it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to solve the technology lock-in effect in coal resource-based areas.

On Free Trials with Online Consumer Reviews

LI Tian, WANG Xue-ying, CHEN Ze-ting

2020, 29(12):  154-160.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0326

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An online seller provides free trial products, on the condition that the free users should make online reviews about the product quality. The regular consumers make purchasing decisions based on the online reviews. The more the free users, the greater number of the online reviews, and the regular consumers rely more on the online reviews. Considering both the online reviews and the unit production cost of the free trial product, this paper studies the online seller’s free trial provision strategy, and its impacts on the online seller’s profit. We show that although the online seller incurs loss of production by offering free trials, the online reviews induced by the free trials enable the seller to set a price responsive to the product quality, and hence the seller benefits from offering free trials when the unit production cost is low. The optimal number of free trial products decreases with the unit production cost. With higher uncertainty on the product quality or lower unit mismatching cost, the revenue brought by offering free trials becomes higher.

Social Effects of Informal Channels in Closed-loop Supply Chain under Reward and Punishment Mechanism

WANG Jian-hua, DENG Yi-ming, HUANG Xian-feng

2020, 29(12):  161-165.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0327

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Aiming at the reality that informal channels in closed-loop supply chains promote resource recycling and reuse while causing secondary pollution to the environment, this paper defines the resource-environment equivalent to represent the performance of both resource recycling and pollution effects of the channels, compares and analyzes the economic effects and resource recycling effects of informal channels with government reward and punishment mechanism by using mathematical optimization and numerical simulation experiments, induces two general theorems for informal channel to achieve positive social effects, and explores the characteristics of the social effects of informal channels under different recycling rates and reward-punishment intensity, and provides reference suggestions and analysis methods for the government to govern informal channels.

Application of Grey Relational Grade Method in “Destocking” of Industrial Enterprises

ZHU Xue-yi, LV Yan-rong

2020, 29(12):  166-171.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0328

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In order to win the market competition position, industrial enterprises must provide the market with products of good quality and people’s satisfaction. This requires dealing with the surplusive and wrong products in the market, that is, carrying out the work of “destocking”. In this paper, by setting inventory-related indicators and calculating the critical value, we can judge whether the products of industrial enterprises are “surplus”. Then we can optimize the ranking by grey relational degrade method to determine the main grasp of “destocking” in industrial industry. The results show that there are three main grasps for industrial enterprises in destocking: first, accelerating the turnover of finished goods funds; second, improving the sales rate of products; third, reducing the proportion of finished goods to current assets. This research conclusion is applied to XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. and has been verified effectively.

Research on the Internal Motivation and Stability of Cooperation Agreement in International Climate Negotiations

SONG Yan, ZHANG Ming, CHEN Sai

2020, 29(12):  172-178.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0329

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Starting from revenue expectation of contracting parties within agreement, the paper establishes a cooperative game theory model to study the internal motivation and stability of international cooperation governance in climate negotiations. The conclusion shows that cooperative agreement can help heterogeneous countries to increase the revenue of greenhouse gas emission reduction governance, and the internal motivation for the formation of cooperation agreements among countries participating in climate negotiations is the expected distribution of the net cooperation revenue. However, this internal motivation cannot make the cooperation agreement achieve equilibrium, equilibrium realization is a process of adjusting the internal distribution policy of expected net revenue: when some negotiating participants withdraw from the cooperative alliance as the most powerful threat, no one can gain more utility without causing losses when the alliance collapses, which makes the negotiating participants form a stable state in mutual checks and balances. The research contribution of the paper lies in breaking through the inherent non-cooperative game framework, explaining the cooperation mechanism of climate negotiation among heterogeneous countries at a more general level, and helping countries to take effective measures to establish climate cooperation alliance to cope with climate challenges.

CEO’s Early Experience and Corporate Litigation Risk: An Empirical Study Based on Listed Companies

PENG Xiao-peng, CHEN Bing-zheng

2020, 29(12):  179-187.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0330

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Based on the Upper Echelons Theory, this paper selects Chinese A-share listed companies as the sample to empirically explore whether CEOs can effectively reduce the litigation risks faced by listed companies. We find that the litigation risks for listed companies in which CEOs have experienced difficult periods in infancy-childhood and childhood-adolescence are significantly reduced, and the impact is more pronounced for CEOs who experienced difficult periods in childhood-adolescence. The causal relationship remains robust after employing the difference-in-difference model and advancing the explanatory variables by one stage to eliminate the endogeneity issue. Further research shows that CEOs who have experienced difficult periods have reduced the level of risk in business operations because they have higher levels of risk aversion, and have not changed the internal control level of enterprises.

Channels Selection of Financing for Contract-farming Supply Chain under Uncertain Acquiring Price: External Financing VS Internal Financing

GUO Na, WANG Wen-li

2020, 29(12):  188-196.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0331

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As the government attaches importance to the issue of agricultural production and food acquisition, the state adopts the policy of the minimum purchase price of grain. Based on the protection price contract, we analyze the equilibrium of financing for the order agricultural supply chain constrained by funds. If the company is willing to lend the agricultural materials to the farmer, the farmer will make a choice between borrowing money from the bank and borrowing materials from the company. In this paper, the focus is on: Under what circumstances will the company be willing to provide financing services to the farmer? How does the farmer’s own capital level affect the choice of the company and the farmer, and the selection result of the supply chain? What steps are being taken to improve the supply chain? Based on the protection price contract, a model for “company+farmer” contract-farming supply chain is constructed. We solve the equilibrium of the external financing and the internal financing, then analyze the intentions of choice between the external financing method and the internal financing method for the acquiring company and the farmer, and the final selection for the whole contract-farming supply chain. The study finds that the company always wants the farmer to choose the financing option with lower expected rate of return, however, the farmer who has many of his own capital prefers the option with higher expected rate of return, this is because when the expected rate of return is high, the farmer will reduce production, while the company will raise the base price to encourage the farmer. At this time, for the farmer, the gain from an increase in base price is greater than the loss from an increase in expected rate of return. However the benefit of the whole supply chain will be damaged. It is vital that the win-win situation between the two sides of the supply chain can be achieved by subsidy policy and extra charge policy introduced by the company when the internal financing service is provided. In a word, our conclusions provide enlightenment for the farmer to choose financing method and for the company to decide that whether to provide financing services for the farmer. The purpose of this paper is to provide enlightenment for the healthy development of future contract-farming trade, and solve the blindness of production for farmers.

Study on the Contagion Mechanism of Associated Credit Risk With Individual Protection Awareness

XU Kai, ZHOU Zong-fang, QIAN Qian, ZHANG Feng-ying

2020, 29(12):  197-206.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0332

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Focusing on the hot and difficult issues of associated credit risk and relevant contagion, and based on the heterogeneous mean field theory of complex network and the classical model SIR of risk propagation dynamics, this paper explores the influence mechanism of the influence of individual protection awareness promoted by risk information on the contagion of associated credit risk, and carries out numerical simulation analysis in BA scale-free network. The results show that the number of infected individuals, the intensity of individual response and the proportion of susceptible individuals with protective awareness are positively correlated with the contagion threshold of associated credit risk. Considering the awareness of individual protection, enhancing the intensity of individual response of susceptible individuals and increasing the proportion of susceptible individuals with protection awareness can effectively inhibit the contagion speed and scale of associated credit risk, and delay the arrival of the peak period of associated credit risk.

Volatility Forecasting Based on Two-Factor Realized GARCH Model

WU Xin-yu, HOU Xin-meng

2020, 29(12):  207-214.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0333

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It is very important for market managers and participants to accurately predict the volatility of financial markets. On the basis of the standard GARCH model, this paper decomposes multiply conditional variance into two parts: long-term variance and short-term variance, and constructs the long-term variance equation and short-term variance equation including lever function, respectively, to capture the long-memory and short-term micro-fluctuation of volatility. Empirical analysis using high frequency data such as daily closing price, realized variance and realized kernel of Shanghai Composite Index and Nikkei Index shows that the two-factor GARCH model of the two indexes has achieved greater likelihood estimates in samples than the standard GARCH model, and the two-factor GARCH model has also realized better performance through out-of-sample error function analysis and DM test.

Management Science

Research on Multi-objective Scheduling of Hybrid Flow Production ShopConsidering Sequence Setting Time

HUANG Hui, LI Meng-xiang, YAN Yong

2020, 29(12):  215-221.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0334

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Based on the characteristics of the hybrid flow shop, sequence setting time and process jump are two important issues need to consider in workshop scheduling. This paper fully considers the two production constraints and establishes the mathematical model for multi-objective scheduling of hybrid flow shop with maximum completion time and load balancing index as dual targets. The improved NSGA-II algorithm is used to simulate the example based on the actual enterprise production data hypothesis. The result shows that the solved scheduling scheme meets the actual requirements and can provide an effective solution for the actual scheduling of the enterprise.

Analysis of In-store Referral Strategy of E-retails with Fairness Concern

DOU Xiao-le, GUO Qiang, LI Zeng-lu, NIE Jia-jia

2020, 29(12):  222-230.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0335

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A referral strategy problem of the e-retail with fairness concern is studied. Firstly, we establish the e-retailer’ decision model without fairness concern, and we find that: the equilibrium strategy of the e-retailers is mutual referral in this benchmark. Secondly, we assume the follower (retailer 2) cares for the fairness, in the case of asymmetric information, as the follower’s fairness concern increases, the equilibrium referral strategy are no retailer referral, only the follower (retailer 2) referral and mutual referral in proper sequence, and due to the information asymmetry, fairness concern can induce the follower to adopt referral strategy; under symmetric information, the equilibrium referral strategy are only leader retailer (retailer 1) referral and mutual referral in proper sequence with the follower’s fairness concern increasing. The transparency of information can promote the leader retailer to take referral strategy. Finally, the problem of equilibrium referral strategy under the fair concern of both retailers is analyzed.

Research on Referral Rewards Program in Consideration of Consumers Heterogeneity in Social Acceptability

CHENG Yong-sheng

2020, 29(12):  231-239.  DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0336

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This work aims to optimize referral reward strategy from the perspective of consumers sociality. Under the assumption that consumers are heterogeneous, the consumers’ purchase and referral behaviors are analyzed through utility theory. The basic model of profit maximization and expand model incorporated with long-term interests are constructed. On this basis, the consumer referral reward program is optimized to show the suitable spaces of high and low discount strategies. And the influence of consumers’ heterogeneous social acceptability on enterprise’s profits and social performance is investigated. Our results show that the high reward strategy should be adopted when the differences in social acceptability are small, otherwise, the low reward strategy is preferable. Furthermore, when the long-term interests are considered, the optimal choices are freemium for referrers. When the environmental parameters change, the optimal high discount reward policy switches to low discount, which results in welfare loss. Additionally, the impetus of virtual-high price in many practical e-commerce firms is explained. Our study provides theoretical support for referral program in reward and price decisions.