市场接纳不确定下短周期新产品产能投资研究 ——考虑竞争的投资时机与规模决策

doi:10.12005/orms.2018.0067

运筹与管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 118-125.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0067

市场接纳不确定下短周期新产品产能投资研究 ——考虑竞争的投资时机与规模决策

燕夏敏¹, 林军¹, 崔文田¹, 钱艳俊²

1.西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安 710049;
2.西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安 710072

收稿日期:2014-06-21 出版日期:2018-03-25
作者简介:燕夏敏(1987-),女,陕西人,博士,研究方向:新产品不确定性;林军( 1976- ),男 ,上海人,副教授, 博士,研究方向:产品开发;崔文田(1958-),男,陕西人,教授,博士,研究方向:供应链管理、网络优化;钱艳俊( 1979-),女,浙江人,副教授,博士,研究方向:新产品开发管理。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71001084,71072128,71371149,71101115);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20100201120050,20100201110043);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金(12回国基金02)

The Study on Capacity Investment of New Products with Short Cycles under Market Acceptance Uncertainty ——Investment Opportunity and Scale Decisions by Considering Competition

YAN Xia-min¹, LIN Jun¹, CUI Wen-tian¹, QIAN Yan-jun²

1.School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China;
2.School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China

Received:2014-06-21 Online:2018-03-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 新产品的市场接纳具有很大不确定性,传统投资理论并不适用于新产品投资。针对新产品投资中的产能投资,研究了垄断企业和有成本差异的竞争企业制定短周期新产品的产能投资时机与规模策略。给定企业“早”和“晚”两个投资时机可供选择,定义“早”投资时,企业只知道新产品市场规模的期望和方差;“晚”投资时,企业知道新产品真实的市场规模。垄断企业进入市场之前无法进行销售信息的收集,只会选择“早”投资或者不投资,给出其选择“早”投资的条件、最优产能投资规模及最大期望利润。有成本差异企业竞争的情形可以分为四种,分别给出四种情形下的最优产能投资规模及最大期望利润,并通过比较各情形下两企业的最大期望利润给出最优的产能投资时机策略。

关键词: 投资决策, 产能投资, 新产品, 短周期, 竞争

Abstract: Market acceptance of new products has a high degree of uncertainty, and traditional investment theories can not apply to investments of new products. For capacity investments of new products, we study how to make capacity investment opportunity and scale decisions of new products with short cycles for a monopoly enterprise and two competitive enterprises with different costs. There are two investment opportunities as “earlier” and “later” for enterprises to choose, and “earlier” investment is defined when enterprises know the mean and covariance of market size for the new product; and “later” investment when enterprises know real market size. A monopoly enterprise can’t collect sale information before entering the market, and it will choose “earlier” investment or no investment, therefore we give the condition of choosing “earlier” investment and corresponding optimal expected profit. There are four kinds of circumstances for two competitive enterprises with different costs, and we give optimal capacity investment scale decisions and corresponding optimal expected profits respectively. The optimal investment opportunity decision is given by comparing optimal expected profits for these four circumstances.

Key words: investment decision, capacity investment, new products, short cycles, competition

中图分类号:

C935

燕夏敏, 林军, 崔文田, 钱艳俊. 市场接纳不确定下短周期新产品产能投资研究 ——考虑竞争的投资时机与规模决策[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(3): 118-125.

YAN Xia-min, LIN Jun, CUI Wen-tian, QIAN Yan-jun. The Study on Capacity Investment of New Products with Short Cycles under Market Acceptance Uncertainty ——Investment Opportunity and Scale Decisions by Considering Competition[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2018, 27(3): 118-125.

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市场接纳不确定下短周期新产品产能投资研究 ——考虑竞争的投资时机与规模决策

The Study on Capacity Investment of New Products with Short Cycles under Market Acceptance Uncertainty ——Investment Opportunity and Scale Decisions by Considering Competition

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