关键词: 碳排放, 广义加性混合模型, 时间相关效应, 异质性

Abstract: As economy enters a period of high-quality development, the relationship between economic development and carbon emission has been paid more and more attention. The paper empirically explores the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China by nonparametric Generalized Additive Mixed Models based on the panel data of provinces from 1997 to 2016.In the paper, as independent variables the unobserved time-related effects and the residual auto-correlation structure are taken into the model and the possibly heterogeneous of the income and time-related effects across provinces are considered. The empirical results show that the income effects in the eastern and central regions is heterogeneous and time-related effects in the western region is heterogeneous. There is no inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. We should take into account the economic development stages,regional differences and the heterogeneity of drivers of carbon emissions in the energy-saving and emission-reduction in the future.

Key words: carbon emission, generalized additive mixed models, time-related factors, heterogeneity