关键词: 林业碳汇, 实物期权, 投资决策, NetLogo仿真

Abstract: Aiming at the complexity, dynamic and uncertainty process of the forestry carbon sequestration project, the paper applies the real option pricing model to assess the value of the forestry carbon sequestration project under the different stages based on the Factory-Carbon Sequestration Model which is used to calculate the forestry initial value. The paper puts forward the Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation method and uses the complexity system simulation software NetLogo. The agents involved in the simulation project are Forest land, CO₂ and investor. The investor makes different investment strategies during the different periods and conditions as an observer. There are three conditions in the simulation which show the changes of the investment strategies under the different simulation processes: the first is the traditional forestry investment simulation without the carbon sequestration trading market and options factors, the second simulation introduces the carbon sequestration market to the forestry investment project and the third simulation introduces the carbon sequestration market and options to the forestry investment project. The experiment results show that the investor would change management strategies and make more benefit if the carbon sequestration trading can be introduced to the market, and at the same time the introduction of options can not only increase the investor's enthusiasm that encourage investor expand investment, but also make forestry carbon sequestration play a better role in the forestry project and the ecologic value project.

Key words: forestry carbon sequestration, real option, investment decision-making, NetLogo simulation