关键词: 取消预订行为, 退订政策, Hotelling模型, 演化博弈

Abstract: Based on the customer's cancellation behavior, this paper constructs a game model of hotels under the framework of Hotelling model and analyzes the choice of cancellation policies between two competitive hotels. The results show that, when the sensitivity of customers to the horizontal differentiation between two hotels is high, if the cancellation rate differentiation between the two hotels is small, the two hotels will choose loose cancellation policy, and if the cancellation rate differentiation is large, the hotel with high cancellation rate will choose the strict cancellation policy, and the hotel with low cancellation rate will choose the loose cancellation policy. When the sensitivity of customers to the horizontal differentiation between the hotels is low and the cancellation rate differentiation between the two hotels is small, there are two evolutionarily stable strategies, and the hotel only chooses the opposite strategy to the competitor to get the maximum profit. Our study provides theoretical support for hotels in cancellation policy decision and revenue management.

Key words: cancellation behavior, cancelation policies, hotelling model, evolutionary game