关键词: 交通结构, 碳排放, 面板数据模型, 影响效应

Abstract: As the hazy weather attacks the whole of China in recent years, the issue of energy conservation and emission reduction in transport industry has become the top priority of China’s energy and environmental strategies. In view of this, this paper intends to discuss the impact of transport structure optimization on traffic emission reduction. Considering other nations’ traffic demonstration effect and data availability, this paper involved China, the United States, the European Union and Japan as cross-sections, builds panel data model, of which the data we chose including passenger-freight turnover(road, railway, waterage and civil aviation)and transport carbon emissions from 1991~2011. The empirical results show that the increase of the share of waterage and railway will lead to traffic carbon emissions reduction, especially, 1% increase in Japan railway proportion would make the carbon emission performance decrease by 3.63%; 1% increase in EU waterage proportion would make the carbon emission performance by 22.11%; respectively ranking first of such two transit ways. The corresponding effect in China is only 0.38% and 0.06%. Finally, in context of “the reform of supply side”, we propose corresponding suggests from the respects of passenger transport and freight transport.

Key words: transport structure, carbon emission, panel data model, influence effectiveness