关键词: 海上丝绸之路, 国际合作, 演化博弈, 三策略博弈, 均衡点稳定性, 仿真

Abstract: China’s initiative of jointly building the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is fraught with difficulties and uncertainties. In order to judge evolutionary trend of the cooperation and its supporting conditions, this paper constructs a game pay-off matrix with three strategic choices, describes the procedure of the cooperation under bounded rationality with an improved replicator dynamics equation, and analyzes the stability of equilibrium solutions and their parametric conditions. A numerical simulation verified above analysis and concluded visually some helpful strategic suggestions for China: Proactively carry out demonstration projects to extricate the game from non-cooperative equilibrium; give short-term subsidies for attracting partners and get fair dealing and mutual benefit in the long run; never pursue local profits maximization and allow partners get more from individual cooperation; select favorable partners and cooperative areas according to relative competitive advantages; find the intersection of strategic interests to promote synergetic performance steadily; watch out and seize the opportunity to guide evolutionary direction in hoped-for way.

Key words: the maritime silk road, international cooperation, evolutionary game, asymmetric game with three strategic choices, stability of equilibrium point, simulation