关键词: 供应链网络, 道德风险, 演化博弈, 系统动力学(SD)

Abstract: As the increasingly serious problem of moral hazard exists in current supply chain network, the paper uses evolutionary game and system dynamics theory to study on the evolution of moral hazard in current supply chain network from both horizontal and vertical perspectives. Firstly, based on the integrity and immoral behavior of the process of cooperation between the suppliers, the paper establishes the lateral evolutionary game model of moral hazard in supply chain network and analyzes the evolutionary path. Secondly, followed by dynamic analysis on supervision game between the manufacturer and supplier, the paper establishes multi-person evolutionary game model based on SD, and simulates the evolutionary equilibrium and the process of moral hazard of the supply chain network from vertical view. The results show that: the evolution results of moral hazard in the supply chain network depend on the excess returns of immoral companies within the network, the degree of adjustment to revenue, penalties and punishment mechanism. In addition, the fine intensity is closely related to the dynamic of the evolution process of moral hazard in the supply chain network; the dynamic penalty strategy has a significant effect on volatility control of the evolution process.

Key words: supply chain network, moral hazard, evolutionary game, system dynamics(SD)