Abstract: This paper focuses on the problem of how the proportion of replacement consumption influences the closed-loop supply chain. Perspectives of the consumers, the scale of closed-loop supply chain and the enterprises are considered to provide important basis for our propositions. With the proportion of replacement consumption increasing, the key propositions are as follows: Consumer utility of the primary consumers and the replacement consumers are both reduced, while the primary consumers lose more. The scale of the forward supply chain gradually decreases, while the scale of the reverse supply chain gradually increases. When the proportion of replacement consumption is equal to 1, there will be replacement consumption existing only and the scales of the forward and reverse supply chain are equal. The profit of the and manufacturer keeps positively increasing while the profit of the collector grows from scratch to a maximum level and then declines.

Key words: closed-loop supply chain, replacement, proportion of consumption, game theory

摘要： 从产品进入市场到普及的过程中,以旧换新消费的比例逐渐增大。该文从消费者、闭环供应链的规模和企业三个视角分析了消费结构变化对闭环供应链的影响。研究表明,随着以旧换新消费比例的增大:初次消费者和以旧换新消费者的消费者剩余均减少,且初次消费者减少较多;正向供应链的规模逐渐减小,而逆向供应链从无到有,规模逐渐增大,直至正向供应链和逆向供应链的规模相等;制造商的利润逐渐增大,而回收商的利润从无到有,并逐渐增大至极值后有所下降。

关键词: 闭环供应链, 以旧换新, 消费比例, 博弈论